Could the Conservatives win an overall majority in the 2015 General Election next year? (PART 2)

Without a coalition this time? (image: courtesy of Reuters)

In my last post, I promised to focus on the seats the Conservatives would need to gain, particularly from Labour, to form a small overall majority. The purpose: to understand where there could be constituency betting value.

Crucial to this is understanding the seats the Conservatives are actively targeting. Since October 2012 it’s been a bit of an open secret that the Conservatives are planning a “40:40 strategy”. This envisages a battleground of 80 key marginal seats. The intent of Tory strategists is to ‘hold’ the 40 most vulnerable seats, and attempt to ‘gain’ the 40 most winnable of the rest to give them a majority. Note: that’s most winnable and not the 40 most arithmetically marginal. The target list has apparently been informed by those constituencies undergoing demographic change that favour the Conservatives, as well as other local factors such as MPs standing down who have a high personal (rather than party) vote.

There has been some debate online (and in the wider mainstream media) as to what the official list really is. There has even been discussion as to whether it’s shifting more “defensively”, to 48:40, or more “offensively” to 40:50. However, the Conservatives did focus all of their early candidate selections in 2013 in 40 marginal seats that very much look like targets. The selections focussed on 19 Liberal Democrat held seats, and 21 Labour held seats. That makes sense to me.

Here’s my list.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r10eniZmywWwmC7SkoVtYBafDsWx6oBYi3xSKkLdsQk/edit?usp=sharing

To explain: I’ve used the UK Polling Report Conservative target seats (the 75 seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Conservative party) as a base. I’ve then mapped the Conservative “40:40” targets to those – 33 of them can be read across. I’ve then added the extra 7 seats at the bottom – those with much larger arithmetic majorities (7 x Liberal Democrat, and 1 x Labour) to make up the full “40”.

A few other modifications: I’ve added my own view of a couple of extra targets that now look juicy for the Tories in the top 75: Taunton Deane, and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. At the very bottom of the list, I’ve added a further 8 seats (notionally much longer shots) to reflect the changed political climate since 2013. These include 6 x Liberal Democrat seats, and a further 2 x Scottish Labour seats; Dumfries & Galloway and Edinburgh South-West. That makes up a nice round 50.

Finally, I’ve highlighted the Labour held targets, added “Best Defender” and “Best Conservative” odds columns, and added my own view of the current likelihood of Conservative performance across the lot; the “CR (Casino Royale) prediction” column.

In order for the Conservatives to win a majority, they really have to first hold the line. They can probably afford to drop no further than 10 seats over the 306 they notionally held in 2010. That’s something like a (v.limited) loss of 3-4 seats to UKIP next year, and no more than 5-6 of the most hyper-marginal seats they currently hold over Labour. Clacton, Corby and (very likely) Rochester & Strood are goners to by-elections. So, they are already a bit behind.

If we assume that 10-seat handicap to be the case, the Conservatives then require 30 net gains to make their total up to 326, and achieve an overall majority of 2. A Liberal Democrat collapse might net them up to 18 seats.  That still leaves at least a further 12 to come from Labour.  The 40:40 candidates have been in place for over a year now, and will be actively campaigning with support from CCHQ. The Conservatives will heavily outspend Labour too. Labour have fewer resources, and are more heavily stretched; targeting a majority requires them to focus on at least 70 seats as well as defend from the SNP. So, if they do make any gains from Labour, they will probably be here. Scotland excepted, which is a slightly special case. More on that later.

The current Betfair odds on a Conservative overall majority are 5/1, so, for betting purposes, we should only really be looking at betting on Labour seats priced longer than this. However, there could be exceptions where a gain looks possible anyway.

Southampton Itchen is one such seat. This was held by John Denham in the 2010GE by a mere 192 votes. He’s been the MP for the seat for 22 years but is standing down next year, taking any personal vote with him. The new Labour candidate, Rowena Davis, has the CV of a classic Westminster political insider. Educated at Hampstead School, she read PPE at Oxford, and has worked as a freelance journalist and political commentator since graduating. She’s a sitting London councillor for Peckham and has faced criticism from within her own local party for having no links to Southampton. By contrast, Royston Smith, the Conservative candidate, has lived in Southampton all his life. He’s also a bit of a local hero following his wrestling to the ground of a gunman on board HMS Astute, in 2011, who had already killed one sailor. The Conservatives led Labour in the local elections here in May, and the Lord Ashcroft marginal poll in July 2014 had the two parties “tied” for votes. That was at a time when Labour was polling much higher nationally, and they have since declined significantly. The current 9/4 on the Conservatives aren’t the best odds in the world, but this feels like an evens toss-up to me. I’m on.

Looking at the other targets, some just don’t look do-able. It’s a bit of a fluke that Hampstead & Kilburn is top of the Tory list. The votes divided almost evenly between Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative last time. Although Glenda Jackson MP is standing down, this is the homeland of the North London intelligentsia and the Ashcroft marginal poll had a whopping lead for Labour. I expect this will be an easy hold.

Similarly, Morely & Outwood. Ed Balls was caught sleeping last time by a very well organised campaign, and extremely good candidate in Antony Calvert. He will have a much higher profile during the election campaign next time, as Shadow Chancellor, and ‘decapitation’ strategies of prominent targets rarely work. Probably a Labour hold. In Walsall North, the Conservatives appear to have been overtaken by UKIP and the current MP of 34 years (the Octogenarian David Winnick) is standing for election again next year. A comfortable Labour hold. Derby North was already a fairly evenly split three-way marginal, and probably a more centre-left leaning seat anyway. The Liberal Democrat defectors should see the incumbent home. Labour hold.

Bolton West, Wirral South and Telford are, on paper, all winnable. I haven’t spent too much time analysing these as the odds aren’t attractive. The local election results haven’t been very encouraging for the Tories, particularly in Bolton West, and neither have the Ashcroft polls. Nevertheless, all have been trending Tory over time, and the Labour majority progressively shrinking since 1997. If the Conservatives were to win a majority, they would probably pick these up. They would also surely retake Corby (priced at 3/1) which was picked up in a 2012 by-election,

I quite fancy Halifax. The Labour poll share has been chopped from 54%, 49%, 42% to 37% over the last four elections, although there were boundary changes for the 2010GE. The Conservatives didn’t drop too badly in the local elections, but it looks a tough nut to crack. The odds aren’t attractive here, but it’s a probable pick up if Labour collapse.  I also rule out Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland on the grounds of odds, although it looks an interesting and unpredictable seat.

I’m drawn to Newcastle-under-Lyme at 7/1. UKIP are actually priced shorter than the Conservatives here, at 11/2 with Paddy Power, but I like their candidate – Tony Cox. He’s a non-stereotypical Conservative, a maintenance engineer, and (from his profile) quite an active one. Labour haven’t advanced very far in the local elections, although UKIP have – a lot, but I think that running a tight campaign the Conservatives would win this, if they were on course for a majority. I’m on for a small sum.

My “tip of the thread” is Birmingham Northfield at 12/1. This seems to be a better prospect, now, for the Tories than Birmingham Edgbaston, which is probably Gisela Stuart’s for as long as she wants it. In Northfield, in the May local elections this year, there was actually a swing to the Conservatives from Labour. It seems the Liberal Democrat vote has swung behind the Tories, whilst UKIP are eating into the Labour vote. The incumbent MP of 22 years seems to have developed a reputation for being more interested in the Middle East than local issues. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Rachel MacClean, has lived in the area for over 40 years, built a local business and looks very ‘normal’, having come into politics late in her career.  I’ve put on the maximum Ladbrokes would allow.

Of the longshots, I like Vale of Clywd and Delyn, priced at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively. It’s difficult to draw firm conclusions, since the last proper set of local elections were held here in 2012. However, the Conservatives did beat Labour in Denbighshire in the 2014 European elections. UKIP came a strong 1st in Flintshire (Delyn), and the Conservatives don’t have the most charismatic candidate in the world in Mark Isherwood, but both are trending Conservative over time. It’s also worth noting North Wales had above average swings to the Conservatives in 2010GE. These two North Wales marginals look tempting for a bet. Delyn even drops into the election forecast model occasionally, most recently as an 11% chance. But both are longshots, no question. Still, I’ve got a sum on as I reckon these would be picked up if a majority were on the cards. Gower is probably an equally long shot, but priced much shorter at 8/1. So not attractive at present.

The penultimate seat: Dumfries & Galloway. Scottish politics is very unpredictable and febrile at the moment.  However, this Scottish council area voted over 65% “NO” in the independence referendum, the 3rd most heavily in Scotland. There have since been signs of a Scottish Labour collapse. If these ex-Labour votes leach to the SNP, the considerable unionist vote may rally around the Conservative candidate. The price seems a snip to me at 8/1. I’m on. Edinburgh South-West – very long shot, but for similar reasons looks good at 12/1. It’s fairly middle class, and Alastair Darling MP announced he was standing down yesterday. Not sure how it’ll end up, but could be a surprise on the night.

That would complete the Tory path to a majority. There are several other routes too of course. It is by no means an easy one, but it isn’t the easiest one, so there should be some food for thought there. Sure, my analysis is full of assumptions. But I think there are some value bets there. What really lies behind it is the scenario where the Labour vote continues to splinter to UKIP, SNP and the Greens, or simply stays at home, and results in Labour achieving a poll-share worse than Gordon Brown in 2010 – see Part 1. If this happens, and is coupled with a rally of swing voters behind David Cameron who may pick him as PM out of fear of something worse, then a Conservative majority is perfectly possible.

A 25% shot feels about right, but we shall have to wait and see for May 2015 for the result.

The election is 6 months on Friday.